Revenue estimating resolution

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1 HOUSE JOINT RESOLUTION NO. 2
2 INTRODUCED BY L. BREWSTER
3 BY REQUEST OF THE REVENUE INTERIM COMMITTEE
4
5 A JOINT RESOLUTION OF THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE STATE OF MONTANA ESTABLISHING AN
6 OFFICIAL ESTIMATE OF THE STATE'S GENERAL FUND REVENUE FOR FISCAL YEAR 2025 AND EACH FISCAL YEAR OF THE 2026-2027
7 BIENNIUM FOR THE PURPOSE OF ACHIEVING A BALANCED BUDGET AS REQUIRED BY ARTICLE VIII, SECTION 9, OF THE MONTANA
8 CONSTITUTION; ACCEPTING A PRELIMINARY UNASSIGNED GENERAL FUND BALANCE; ESTABLISHING OFFICIAL ESTIMATES OF
9 CERTAIN NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE; AND REQUESTING THAT THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE OF BUDGET AND PROGRAM
10 PLANNING USE THE REVENUE ESTIMATES CONTAINED IN THIS RESOLUTION AS OFFICIAL ESTIMATES FOR FISCAL YEARS 2025,
11 2026, AND 2027.
12
13 WHEREAS, Article VI, section 9, of the Montana Constitution requires the Governor to submit to the Legislature a budget for the ensuing
14 fiscal period, containing in detail for all operating funds the proposed expenditures and estimated revenue of the state; and
15 WHEREAS, Article VIII, section 9, of the Montana Constitution prohibits the Legislature from appropriating funds in excess of the
16 anticipated revenue of the state; and
17 WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(2), MCA, requires the Revenue Interim Committee to estimate the amount of revenue projected to be
18 available for legislative appropriation and to introduce a resolution setting forth the Committee's current revenue estimate; and
19 WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(3), MCA, expresses the Legislature's intent that its revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions used
20 to derive those estimates be used by all agencies in the development of fiscal notes; and
21 WHEREAS, the Revenue Interim Committee obtained the assistance of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst in the development of the revenue
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1 estimates; and
2 WHEREAS, the Revenue Interim Committee also obtained the assistance of Executive Branch agencies in the development of the
3 revenue estimates; and
4 WHEREAS, the Revenue Interim Committee has adopted revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions used to derive those
5 estimates for the general fund and for specific nongeneral fund sources that are significant in the development of the state budget for fiscal year
6 2025 and the 2026-2027 biennium; and
7 WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(3), MCA, provides that the Revenue Interim Committee's estimate, as introduced in the Legislature,
8 constitutes the Legislature's current revenue estimate until amended or until final adoption of the estimate by both houses; and
9 WHEREAS, the amount of estimated revenue and the general fund balance affects policy decisions of the Executive Branch and the
10 Legislative Branch; and
11 WHEREAS, the revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions contained in this resolution provide the basis for a comprehensive
12 analysis of the state's revenue condition.
13
14 NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE STATE OF MONTANA:
15 That the state general fund revenue for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 be estimated to be $3,266,437,000, $3,531,512,000, and
16 $3,567,268,000, respectively.
17 BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the Legislature accept for budget purposes the preliminary unassigned fiscal year 2024 fund balance
18 of $1,028,009,187 for the general fund, prepared according to generally accepted accounting principles.
19 BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the Governor's Office of Budget and Program Planning use the revenue estimates and the underlying
20 assumptions contained in this resolution as the official revenue estimates for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027.
21 GENERAL FUND REVENUE
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1 The projections for general fund revenue for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are based on the assumptions of the continuation of
2 Montana and federal law as it existed on January 1, 2025. The revenue estimates contained in the following tables are based on the assumptions
3 listed in the tables that follow the general fund estimates and the assumptions for each general fund revenue source (as adopted by the Revenue
4 Interim Committee) contained in the "Legislative Budget Analysis, 2027 Biennium, Volume 2 -- Revenue Estimates" prepared by the Legislative
5 Fiscal Division.
6 Current Law
7 General Fund Revenue Estimates
8 (In Millions of Dollars)
Actual Estimated Estimated Estimated
Source of Revenue FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027
Largest Seven Sources
Individual Income Tax $2,243.946 $2,166.409 $2,284.365 $2,340.312
Property Tax 17.222 14.938 13.334 12.605
Corporate Income Tax 312.276 315.242 326.217 338.396
Vehicle Taxes & Fees 124.840 125.956 127.007 128.048
Oil & Natural Gas Production Tax 64.405 65.302 69.156 70.950
Insurance Tax & License Fees 115.075 126.202 129.818 134.354
Video Gambling Tax 83.385 84.897 86.903 89.186
Largest Seven Sources Subtotal 2,961.150 2,898.948 3,036.800 3,113.850
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Other Business Taxes
Driver's License Fee 5.772 5.772 5.826 5.880
Investment License Fee 21.042 21.696 22.309 22.849
Lodging Taxes 44.750 46.711 48.108 50.080
Public Contractors Tax 9.125 5.163 4.812 4.231
Railroad Car Tax 3.645 3.920 3.931 4.054
Rental Car Sales Tax 6.972 7.827 8.007 8.049
Telecommunications Excise Tax 8.139 7.960 7.755 7.550
Other Business Taxes Subtotal 99.444 99.050 100.748 102.693
Other Natural Resource Taxes
Coal Severance Tax 18.181 15.530 14.345 13.366
Electrical Energy Tax 4.090 5.603 5.543 5.512
Metalliferous Mines Tax 6.573 7.378 6.935 6.968
US Mineral Royalty 15.655 14.832 14.133 13.446
Wholesale Energy Tax 3.545 3.320 3.292 3.317
Other Natural Resource Taxes Subtotal 48.044 46.665 44.249 42.609
Other Interest Earnings
Coal Trust Interest 19.139 19.681 19.827 20.289
Treasury Cash Account Interest - - 104.283 79.005
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Other Interest Earnings Subtotal 19.139 19.681 124.111 99.294
Other Consumption Taxes
Beer Tax 2.971 2.980 2.851 2.709
Cigarette Tax 20.919 19.658 19.231 18.188
Liquor Excise & License Tax 35.443 35.016 36.185 37.974
Liquor Profits 7.000 20.900 21.800 23.000
Lottery Profits 19.313 20.928 20.152 20.709
Marijuana Tax 31.804 32.903 34.380 35.858
Tobacco Tax 5.114 5.665 5.390 5.187
Wine Tax 2.504 2.558 2.575 2.582
Other Consumption Taxes Subtotal 125.069 140.608 142.562 146.207
Other Sources
All Other Revenue 54.615 45.569 67.199 46.901
Highway Patrol Fines 3.474 3.531 3.531 3.512
Nursing Facilities Fee 3.535 3.558 3.609 3.644
Public Institution Reimbursements 4.903 5.919 5.927 5.936
Tobacco Settlement 2.999 2.910 2.776 2.622
Other Sources Subtotal 69.527 61.487 83.043 62.615
One-Time-Only Revenue
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TCA Interest - - 47.507 22.229
Transfer from Income Tax Rebate Fund - - 21.246 -
One-Time-Only Subtotal 68.752 22.229
Total General Fund $3,322.371 $3,266.437 $3,531.512 $3,567.268
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2 SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS FOR GENERAL FUND REVENUE ESTIMATES
Year Assumption 2024 2025 2026 2027
Largest Seven Sources
Individual Income Tax
CY Wage & salary income growth 6.7% 4.5% 4.6% 4.2%
CY Interest income growth 16.2% 4.0% 7.3% 8.5%
CY Dividend income growth 4.5% 10.0% 1.9% 0.7%
CY Taxable refunds growth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CY Alimony received growth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CY Net business growth 6.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.4%
CY Capital gains income growth 41.0% 4.2% -25.2% -9.6%
CY Supplemental gains income growth -1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CY Rents, royalties & partnership income growth 16.4% 3.4% -1.0% -0.6%
CY IRA income growth 8.4% 5.3% 1.7% 1.6%
CY Taxable pension income growth 2.5% 4.3% 5.4% 4.5%
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CY Taxable social security income growth 5.6% 5.1% 4.3% 4.1%
CY Farm income growth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CY Unemployment compensation growth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CY Other income growth 500.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CY Federal inflation factor 5.5% 2.8% 2.3% 2.0%
CY State inflation factor 5.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3%
CY Full year resident adjustment 102.3% 103.6% 104.0% 104.3%
CY Non-resident adjustment 106.1% 106.1% 106.1% 106.1%
FY Earned income tax credit (Millions) $18.397 $18.816 $19.043 $19.062
CY Elderly homeowner/renter credits (Millions) $10.241 $10.241 $10.241 $10.241
CY All other credits (Millions) $101.491 $104.728 $104.099 $103.821
FY Audit, penalty & interest collections (Millions) $79.575 $83.334 $83.769
FY Adjustment for 3.55% Missing Filers (Millions) -$35 -$36 -$37
Corporate Income Tax
CY WTI price ($/bbl) $76.43 $68.83 $74.74 $77.92
CY Montana retail sales (Millions) $24,570 $25,399 $26,396 $27,386
CY Montana median home price $442,433 $451,813 $459,736 $469,825
CY Wholesale employment (Thousands) 19.2 19.2 19.4 19.5
CY Professional Employment (Thousands) 52.7 24.5 55.2 54.9
CY Montana GSP (Transportation) (Millions) $2,331 $2,407 $2,488 $2,555
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FY Audit, penalty & interest collections (Millions) $16.795 $16.008 $16.410
FY Refunds (Millions) -$26.605 -$27.920 -$28.146
Vehicle Taxes & Fees
FY Montana new vehicle sales (Thousands) 61.108 60.638 60.661
FY US new vehicle sales (Millions) 15.999 16.367 16.598
FY US total vehicle stock (Millions) 298.961 301.874 304.607
Montana Population Growth 0.84% 0.89% 0.88% 0.80%
Oil & Natural Gas Production Tax
CY WTI price ($/bbl) $76.43 $68.83 $74.74 $77.92
CY Montana oil price ratio 0.963 0.959 0.961 0.960
CY Total oil production (Million barrels) 23.729 26.520 28.377 30.210
CY Holiday oil production (Million barrels) 7.018 5.846 3.050 2.310
CY Henry Hub price ($/Mcf) $2.136 $4.332 $5.000 $4.806
CY Montana natural gas price ratio 0.648 0.648 0.648 0.648
CY Total natural gas production (Million MCFs) 45.594 41.728 40.551 40.893
CY Holiday natural gas production (Million MCFs) 2.712 2.482 2.412 2.432
Other Business Taxes
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Insurance Tax & License Fees
FY Montana PCE Finance & Insurance (Millions) $4,352 $4,582 $4,633 $4,727
Driver's License Fee
CY Montana population age 16 and over (Millions) 0.939 0.950 0.960 0.969
Investment License Fee
FY Montana PCE Finance & Insurance (Millions) $4,352 $4,582 $4,633 $4,727
Lodging Taxes
FY Gross State Product (Tourism) Growth 6.49% 3.17% 2.99% 4.10%
Public Contractors Tax
FY Highway payments (Millions) $521 $384 $398 $407
FY Other payments (Millions) $1,382 $881 $761 $582
Railroad Car Tax
FY Montana retail sales (Millions) $23,448 $24,201 $24,263 $24,952
Rental Car Sales Tax
FY Montana PCE Transportation (Millions) $2,455 $2,654 $2,707 $2,720
Telecommunications Excise Tax
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FY Montana population age 16 and over (Millions) 0.934 0.945 0.955 0.965
Other Natural Resource Taxes
Coal Severance Tax
CY Price ($/ton) $30.58 $27.56 $25.33 $23.48
CY Production (Million Tons) 23.467 22.294 21.179 20.120
Electrical Energy Tax
FY Taxable Production (KWH) 20,437 20,128 20,347 20,304
Metalliferous Mines Tax
CY Price: Copper ($/oz) $0.25 $0.25 $0.25 $0.25
CY Price: Silver ($/oz) $28 $28 $28 $28
CY Price: Gold ($/oz) $1,850 $1,869 $1,888 $1,869
CY Price: Moly ($/oz) $1.27 $1.12 $1.24 $1.27
CY Price: Palladium ($/oz) $1,100 $1,212 $1,156 $1,184
CY Price: Platinum ($/oz) $1,011 $987 $1,006 $989
US Mineral Royalty
FFY Oil price ($/bbl) $76.43 $68.83 $74.74 $77.92
FFY Oil production (Million barrels) 2.735 2.682 2.628 2.575
FFY Coal price ($/ton) $77.15 $64.50 $59.54 $55.44
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FFY Coal production (Million Tons) 10.637 9.886 9.392 8.922
FFY Natural gas price ($/MCF) $2.14 $4.33 $5.00 $4.81
FFY Natural gas production (Million MCFs) 8.129 7.527 6.848 6.322
FFY Rent and bonus payments (Millions) $0.395 $0.371 $0.383 $0.405
Wholesale Energy Tax
FY Production (KWH) 23,490 22,763 22,571 22,752
Other Interest Earnings
Coal Trust Interest
FY Short term interest rates 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
FY Long term interest rates 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
Treasury Cash Account Interest
FY Short term interest rates 5.39% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
FY Average balance (Millions) $3,040 $2,565 $2,448 $2,172
Other Consumption Taxes
Beer Tax
FY Montana PCE food (Millions) $5,971 $6,184 $6,454 $6,777
FY Montana population age 21 and above (Millions) 0.867 0.877 0.887 0.896
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Cigarette Tax
FY Consumer spending on tobacco (Millions) $117 $116 $114 $111
FY CPI for tobacco 145 154 163 172
FY Montana population age 18 and above (Millions) 0.911 0.921 0.931 0.940
Liquor Excise & License Tax
FY Montana PCE food (Millions) $5,971 $6,184 $6,454 $6,777
Liquor Profits
FY Montana PCE food (Millions) $5,972 $6,184 $6,454 $6,777
FY Montana population age 18 and above (Millions) 0.911 0.921 0.931 0.940
FY Short term interest rates 5.10% 4.89% 4.14% 3.13%
Marijuana Tax
FY Montana Population Growth 0.86% 0.89% 0.84% 0.76%
FY Consumer Price Index (CPI) 3.31% 2.06% 2.72% 2.68%
Tobacco Tax
FY Montana population age 18 and above (Millions) 0.911 0.921 0.931 0.940
FY Montana PCE (Millions) $91,767 $96,007 $100,464 $105,092
Wine Tax
FY Montana population age 21 and above (Millions) 0.867 0.877 0.887 0.896
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Other Sources
All Other Revenue
FY Time series 2024 2025 2026
Highway Patrol Fines
FY Time series 2024 2025 2026
Nursing Facilities Fee
FY Time series 2024 2025 2026
Public Institution Reimbursements
FY Montana nursing facility residents 3,220 3,225 3,233 3,241
Tobacco Settlement
FY Volume (Millions) 134,990 120,795 108,093 96,726
FY Inflation 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0%
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4 SELECTED NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE
5 The estimates for selected nongeneral fund revenue for fiscal year 2025 and the 2026-2027 biennium are based on the assumptions of a
6 continuation of Montana law as it existed on January 1, 2025. The revenue estimates contained in the following tables are based on the
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1 assumptions listed in the tables that follow the nongeneral fund estimates and the assumptions for each nongeneral fund revenue source
2 contained in the "Legislative Budget Analysis, 2025 Biennium, Volume 2 -- Revenue Estimates" prepared by the Legislative Fiscal Division.
3 Current Law
4 Selected Nongeneral Fund Revenue Estimates
5 (In Millions of Dollars)
Actual Estimated Estimated Estimated
Source of Revenue FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027
Property Taxes
Property Tax: 95 Mill $430.813 $441.624 $511.558 $516.397
Property Tax: 6 Mill 29.643 29.925 34.087 34.336
Property Taxes Subtotal 460.456 471.549 545.645 550.733
Natural Resource Taxes
Federal Forest Receipts 13.397 4.682 4.802 4.958
Resource Indemnity Tax 5.198 4.425 3.562 3.132
Natural Resource Taxes Subtotal 18.594 9.108 8.364 8.090
Interest Earnings
Capital Land Grant Interest and Income 4.343 1.649 1.507 1.446
Common School Interest and Income 59.473 55.032 57.702 60.635
Conservation Districts Trust 0.303 1.262 2.055 2.899
Cultural Trust Interest 0.648 0.652 0.682 0.717
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Deaf & Blind Interest and Income 0.327 0.363 0.387 0.424
Economic Development Trust 6.176 6.460 6.775 7.156
Montana Coal Endowment Trust 12.036 11.550 11.854 12.223
Montana Coal Endowment Regional Water Trust 4.018 3.628 3.801 3.990
Parks Trust Interest 1.206 1.203 1.248 1.304
Pine Hills Interest and Income 0.455 0.442 0.464 0.475
Resource Indemnity Trust Interest 4.096 3.811 4.011 4.221
School Facilities Trust Interest 8.066 8.733 9.076 9.598
TCA Interest Earnings 163.738 138.908 - -
Tobacco Trust Interest 12.445 12.585 13.721 14.970
Interest Earnings Subtotal 277.331 246.279 113.283 120.057
Consumption Taxes
Diesel Tax 91.432 93.908 94.980 96.675
Gasoline Tax 195.654 195.796 199.208 202.815
GVW and Other Fees 41.604 41.599 42.794 43.968
Consumption Taxes Subtotal 328.690 331.302 336.981 343.458
Total of Selected Nongeneral Fund Sources $1,085.071 $1,058.238 $1,004.273 $1,022.338
Guarantee Fund $64.463 $57.756 $59.021 $59.590
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1 SELECTED ASSUMPTIONS FOR NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE ESTIMATES
Year Assumption 2024 2025 2026 2027
Property Tax
Property Tax: 95 Mill
FY Class 1 taxable value (Millions) $5.621 $5.762 $5.446
FY Class 2 taxable value (Millions) $26.584 $30.489 $28.816
FY Class 3 taxable value (Millions) $153.099 $161.351 $162.964
FY Class 4 taxable value (Millions) $3,424.878 $4,104.848 $4,134.309
FY Class 5 taxable value (Millions) $57.705 $59.593 $61.543
FY Class 7 taxable value (Millions) $0.018 $0.017 $0.015
FY Class 8 taxable value (Millions) $209.398 $231.307 $238.241
FY Class 9 taxable value (Millions) $615.404 $637.794 $660.999
FY Class 10 taxable value (Millions) $4.764 $4.764 $4.764
FY Class 12 taxable value (Millions) $87.057 $87.634 $88.326
FY Class 13 taxable value (Millions) $129.914 $126.486 $123.148
FY Class 14 taxable value (Millions) $37.230 $38.719 $38.719
FY Class 15 taxable value (Millions) $2.775 $2.775 $2.775
FY Class 17 taxable value (Millions) $0.561 $0.561 $0.561
FY TIF Value (Millions) $100.524 $101.462 $109.055
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Property Tax: 6 Mill
FY Taxable Value (Millions) $4.755 $5.492 $5.550
Natural Resource Taxes
Federal Forest Receipts
FY Total Montana Receipts (Millions) $4.682 $4.802 $4.958
Resource Indemnity Tax
FY Coal Receipts (Millions) $4.404 $3.626 $2.664 $2.302
FY Other Receipts (Millions) $0.793 $0.799 $0.898 $0.830
Interest Earnings
Capital Land Grant Interest and Income
FY Lease Total (Millions) $0.866 $0.779 $0.765 $0.784
FY Permanent Fund Total (Millions) $3.270 $1.831 $1.736 $1.698
FY Administration Costs -$1.153 -$0.960 -$0.994 -$1.036
Common School Interest and Income
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Conservation Districts Trust
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FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Cultural Trust Interest
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Deaf & Blind Interest and Income
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Economic Development Trust
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Montana Coal Endowment Regional Water Trust Interest
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Montana Coal Endowment Trust Interest
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
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Parks Trust Interest
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Pine Hills Interest and Income
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Resource Indemnity Trust Interest
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
School Facilities Trust Interest
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Tobacco Trust Interest
FY TFBP Long Term Interest Rate 3.92% 3.81% 4.01% 4.22%
FY Short Term Interest Rate 4.80% 4.99% 3.79% 3.08%
Consumption Taxes
Diesel Tax
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FY Time Series Trend 2025 2026 2027
Gasoline Tax
FY Time Series Trend 2025 2026 2027
GVW and Other Fees
FY Time Series Trend 2025 2026 2027
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