"Long-Term Budget Outlook Act"; requires State Treasurer to prepare and submit annual multi-year fiscal outlook analysis report.

S3618

SENATE, No. 3618

STATE OF NEW JERSEY

222nd LEGISLATURE

�

INTRODUCED FEBRUARY 19, 2026

Sponsored by:

Senator� PAUL A. SARLO

District 36 (Bergen and Passaic)

SYNOPSIS

���� �Long-Term Budget Outlook Act�; requires State
Treasurer to prepare and submit annual multi-year fiscal outlook analysis
report.

CURRENT VERSION OF TEXT

���� As introduced.

��

An Act
concerning multi-year expenditure and revenue
forecasting, designated as the �Long-Term Budget Outlook Act,� and
supplementing Title 52 of the Revised Statutes.

����
Be It
Enacted
by the Senate and General Assembly of
the State of New Jersey:

���� 1.� a.� The State Treasurer
shall annually, on or before April 1, or the date of the State Treasurer�s
first appearance before the Legislature�s budget committees next following the
presentation of the Governor�s budget message, whichever occurs first, submit
to the Governor and, pursuant to section 2 of P.L.1991, c.164 (C.52:14-19.1),
to the Legislature, a multi-year fiscal outlook analysis of the trajectory of
the Governor�s proposed budget.� The analysis shall include the following
information for the ensuing fiscal year and the next two succeeding fiscal
years thereafter, which information shall contain distinct projections of any
structural deficit based on an optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline economic
scenario for each fiscal year, respectively:

���� (1) an itemized statement of
the anticipated amount of all appropriations from the State General Fund, other
budgeted State revenues, other dedicated funds, and Federal aid and trust
funds, as shall be recommended pursuant to paragraph (2) of subsection C. of
section 11 of Article 3 of P.L.1944, c.112 (C.52:27B-20).� The anticipated
amounts shall be projected using a current services basis of budgeting and
adjusted using economic metrics, including, but not limited to,
program-specific inflation metrics, previously-enacted program expansions and
eliminations, and caseload or population changes.� The analysis shall include a
statement explaining the underlying assumptions and methods used to calculate
the amounts anticipated pursuant to this paragraph, including the assumptions
underlying the optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline economic scenarios.� The
analysis shall include estimates of the amounts necessary to pay principal and
interest due on capital projects financed through the issuance of general obligations
bonds and appropriation-backed contract bonds issued by independent authorities
of the State; and

���� (2) a projection of
anticipated revenues from all sources applicable to those budget periods and an
estimate of all balances projected to be on hand and available for
appropriation upon the conclusion of each fiscal year, as such amounts shall be
estimated pursuant to paragraph (2) of subsection A. of section 11 of Article 3
of P.L.1944, c.112 (C.52:27B-20).� The analysis shall include a statement
explaining the underlying assumptions and methods used to calculate the amounts
estimated pursuant to this paragraph, including the assumptions underlying the
optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline economic scenarios.

���� b.� The State Treasurer shall
annually, on or before May 31, or the date of the State Treasurer�s second
appearance before the Legislature�s budget committee�s next following the
presentation of the Governor�s budget message, whichever occurs earlier, submit
an updated multi-year fiscal outlook to the Governor and, pursuant to section 2
of P.L.1991, c.164 (C.52:14-19.1), to the Legislature.� The updated multi-year
fiscal outlook analysis shall include all information required pursuant to
subsection b. of this section and shall include a statement explaining any
revisions to the analysis submitted for that fiscal year pursuant to subsection
a. of this section.�

���� c.� As used in this section,
�current services basis of budgeting� means an approach to budgeting that is
based on estimating the cost required to maintain benefits, programs, and
services at the levels authorized in the Governor�s proposed budget in succeeding
fiscal years, as adjusted for changes in enrollment, caseload and population
changes, statutory cost-of-living adjustments, and previously-enacted program
expansions and eliminations.

���� 2.� This act shall take effect
immediately.

STATEMENT

���� This bill requires the State
Treasurer to submit an annual multi-year fiscal outlook analysis to the
Governor and the Legislature based on the Governor�s proposed budget.� The
purpose of this bill is to identify publicly the trajectory of the budget�s structural
deficit in future years to inform current decision-making.

���� The bill requires the
multi-year fiscal outlook analysis to include a forecast of the State�s
anticipated fiscal position, based on the Governor�s proposed budget for the
next fiscal year and for each of the next two succeeding State fiscal years.

���� For each State fiscal year,
the analysis is required to include an itemized statement of the anticipated
amount of all appropriations, revenues, and fund balance as well as distinct
projections of any structural deficit, based on the optimistic, pessimistic,
and baseline economic scenario for each State fiscal year.

���� The bill requires the
anticipated amounts of appropriations in each State fiscal year to be estimated
using a current services basis of budgeting method and adjusted based on
relevant economic metrics and programmatic adjustments.� Current services
budgeting is a method used to project what the State would have to spend on a
given program to maintain the program at its currently proposed funding level
in the absence of any proposed policy changes.� In each case, the bill requires
the multi-year fiscal outlook analysis to include a statement explaining the
underlying assumptions and methods used to determine the anticipated amount of
revenues and appropriations for each fiscal year, as well as the optimistic,
pessimistic, and baseline economic scenarios.�

���� The bill also directs the
State Treasurer to submit the multi-year fiscal outlook analysis twice each
year.� The bill requires the multi-year fiscal outlook analysis to be submitted
either on or before April 1, or on the date of the State Treasurer�s first
appearance before the Legislature�s budget committees following the Governor�s
budget message, whichever occurs earlier, and once on or before May 31, or on
the date of the State Treasurer�s second appearance before the Legislature�s
budget committees during their consideration of the Governor�s proposed
budget.� The bill also requires the updated multi-year fiscal outlook analysis
to include a statement explaining any revisions to the initial analysis
submitted for that year.